Quant Coalescence

October, 2016: “Lions and Tigers and Bears….Oh My” ”

The markets remain fairly stable despite numerous statistics indicating the market is at record level valuations. These indicators are sending warning signs at a time of geopolitical uncertainty and a close presidential election. In addition, according to John Butters, VP, and Sr. Earnings Analyst at Factset, for Q3 2016, the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -2.1%.

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Market Pulse

PCM 2016 Market Outlook: January 11, 2016

I believe that the U.S. financial markets may be nearing the end of the third stock market bubble in fifteen years. By some measures, equity valuations have reached the most extreme point in history. Market "internals" are starting to break down. Unless one has a 25 year time horizon, now is one of the worst times in history to enter into a traditionally allocated "buy and hold" equity and bond portfolio.

Using seasons as a metaphor, it is late fall in the U.S. equity market and economic cycle. There is a winter season coming. Between now and 2022, broad U.S. equity indexes are at risk of falling 50% to 60%.

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